On the Greens and the Liberals...

Having just returned from a great day of academic meetings in Chicago, here are my quick two-cents on the May-Dion deal:

i) May has just torpedoed the chances of every other Green candidate save her. Suppose a voter wants to support environmental action. Why in the world would they waste their vote on the Green candidate when they can vote for a Liberal candidate who comes with Ms May's seal of approval.
ii) There is nothing unseemly or untoward about this. At worst, it is awkward. The logic of a plurality system is that the number of parties is always being winnowed. This is why the Progressive Conservatives and the Alliance merged (and, by the way Monte, that happened in a backroom as well). That May has recognized that she cannot win and achieve her objectives on her own and has essentially merged with the Liberals is to her credit. As for Dion, not running a candidate in Central Nova is a small price to pay.
iii) It will be extremely hard to estimate and demonstrate after the election, but I think this is worth 2 points for the Liberals.

On Belinda...

What exactly do you call someone who entered politics with so much promise but then left after just three years as an MP with a reputation for speaking out against their party's leadership, doing their own thing, and generally finding the role of an MP unstimulating? A dilletante? A flake? A self-serving ambition-driven shell? Well, today you call him the Prime Minister.

Thanks, Barry.

Haven't the Bee Gees done enough to wreck music already? Now, this?

On private schools and "tax breaks"

Today, the Sun has a fairly good article by Joan Bryden under a ridiculous headline. You can find it here. Here's the jist of the story: in the past when parents receive scholarships to reduce the private school tuition of their children they also had to count that scholarship as income. So, despite also paying property taxes and provincial taxes, these parents also had to pay taxes on money which never actually passed through their wallet. The federal government decided to stop taxing these scholarships in this year's budget (just as they decided to stop taxing my university scholarships in last year's, though the subject of Mr. Flaherty buying me a motorcycle is for another post).

Now, the Liberals think this is unfair. Gerard Kennedy is calling it the subsidy of private schools or something like that. And Ted over at Cerberus, who in my mind is the best Liberal blogger, is also all over this. Is this really a battle the Liberals want to fight? They want to stand for taking more money from parents who want the best education for their kids and are willing to pay for it in addition to paying taxes for schools they don't use? Oh, did I forget to mention that Kennedy also informed us that this measure is meant to appeal to the party's "social conservative base"? What say the experts? I'll leave it to Alex Usher: ""If it's speaking to their base, it's speaking in semaphore with postage-sized flags."

I just don't understand some of the battles this party is trying to fight.

Une petite question, version 112

I agree with Wells, Coyne, Cherniak, the lot. Calling Stephane Dion a vendu is really cheap. It's an insult that some folks here in Quebec like to use for those who stand up for Canada and for the reality that Quebecers are better off in the federation. In the case of Mr. Dion, it's usually been deployed against him after he has exhausted separatist/sovereignist logic. It's been used against him often, so I can't imagine he gets too hurt by it now. His skin is pretty thick. But still, he certainly doesn't deserve it.

But let's run with the argument that it is an unforgivable insult. What say backers of former Prime Minister Paul Martin, whose campaign deployed it against Chretien in 1990? If he can be forgiven for it, why not Harper?

A good question.

The Globe and Mail's Jeff Shallot raised a great question on CTV's Question Period this morning. Why, when the government has made so much of greater citizen input on judicial appointment committees do they not have a single civilian on the search committee to find a new RCMP commissioner? (The committee, if I recall, is composed of a former RCMP commissioner, the PM's security advisor, and two former Supreme Court Justices. All qualifed people, I should like to say).

I, for one, do not have strong objections to the Conservatives' method for judicial appointments. Especially when judicial appointments have hardly been non-partisan in the past. But, why not extend the principal of greater citizen involvement to the RCMP? Especially when the top brass of the RCMP are bringing themselves into such disrepute? And especially when the RCMP has no civilian oversight as it now stands. This seems like a great beachhead to take in the reform of the organization.

Is Air Canada double ticketing?

I actually like Air Canada. I've taken twenty flights since January, all of them on Air Canada (or a SA partner). They've all been pleasant, and their staff have been helpful (for instance, when I missed a connection mostly because of absentmindedness).

But today I was booking a flight to Chicago in two weeks. Air Canada offers the cheapest direct flight from Montreal. The indicated price with taxes and fees was $511. But then, just as I was about to hit click the price jumped to $554. I don't understand why, and I don't understand how this is different from double ticketing, a fraudulent practice in which stores "mistakenly" put two prices on an item but insist on charging the higher price at the register.

It's hard to know what to do in this case. Do I wait until I can talk to someone at AC, or do I book and then complain and hope to get the difference. If I do the first, I risk a higher price. If I do the second, I risk no refund of the difference. Damned if you do...

Three thoughts on the Quebec election

I provide these without links (and with apologies):

1.) It is unclear to me exactly why this outcome advantages Harper. The argument being advanced this morning is that this shows that there is a stronger conservative sentiment in Quebec than we knew about a day ago. And this sentiment is particularly tied to social values, concerns about the family, and concerns about immigration. But can Harper really hit hard on those issues in Quebec (especially reasonable accomodation) and not pay an electoral cost in the rest of the country, especially among the visible minorities he is so assiduously courting?
2.) You can call Dumont Le Pen if you like, but what last night's result shows is that when mainstream parties fail to address the concerns of a large part of the population - that is, when they fail to lead on those concerns and to set the agenda - then more marginal forces can grab a hold and make them a winning issue. It's a heresthetic (look it up), and it worked masterfully for Dumont, particularly because the other parties were not proactive.
3.) Boisclair is obviously done. And this hurts Charest. While I think he can hold on, it is made marginally more difficult by the fact that the PQ will soon be without a leader. If disgruntled Liberals can throw Charest over the side fast enough they can elect a new leader and premier - perhaps finding him at a Jean Talon market - while the new PQ leader is still finding his feet (or his way back from Ottawa).

Back from Spain

I am back from Spain. I spent two days in meetings with some great academics, including this guy and this guy. I am really lucky to be involved in a project with them and others examining public opinion towards immigration in Western Europe.

After two days in Barcelona, my father - who flew in a day after me - and I mounted a couple of motorcycles and headed across the country for six days. We rode past Valencia the first day, down to Grenada the second, up Gibraltar (to the very top) and off to Seville the next day. On Thursday we headed to Albacete and on Friday we stayed in Tureul. Saturday we returned to Barcelona, 3000 kms wiser and no younger from all of the coffee we drank. There can be little doubt that Spain is a first class bike country. Pictures are soon to follow. (For those interested, this is a first-rate outfit from which to rent bikes).

In the meantime, I am back to experimenting on students and writing about the effectiveness of direct mail.

Freedom lovers mourn...

... but this is a good ruling if you, like me, believe in the independence of voting. If you don't believe in it, one read of this guy should change your mind.

Who would you be more surprised to see at Harvard?

Apparently, Andre Boisclair was surprised to see so many people with "slanted eyes" at Harvard. As a friend said, I am sure they were surprised to see a university drop-out there. What a dick.

The logic of political survival hits one about the head

Unfortunately, this is what the logic of political survival looks like in Zimbabwe. May Mugabe ride into the syphillis-sunset before this gets any worse. And maybe those who still celebrate him as a hero could saddle up with him.

Halifax Taxis

Halifax taxis are absurd. For some reason, cab drivers there are legally obligated to keep their lights on even when they have a fare. If you've ever tried to flag a taxi there on a cold night then you'll know the frequent dissapointment of full-but-lit cabs passing you by. But this isn't the greatest absurdity. If you read David Rhodenheiser's column today in the Daily News, he points out that taxi licenses - i.e. the right to possess a taxi number - sell for just $50 a year. And they are owned for life. Yet, taxis are being leased for as much as $500 a month. Now, in a bout of economic illiteracy, Rhodenheiser suggests that this is leading to the exploitation of cab drivers who are paying the $500 a month to lease the licenses. Of course it is no such thing, as these drivers are neither compelled nor coerced into leasing the licenses. Rather, the travesty is that the Halifax council would price so meagerly a commodity which is obviously of much greater value. What should be occurring, of course, is that Halifax taxpayers should be receiving the market rate for every cab which is on the road, which is apparently about 120 times what they are receiving now. But what do you expect from a city that goes so far as to force cab lights to stay on when the cab is taken?

On compelled testimony and preventative arrests

I have to admit, I am actually baffled as to who is right in today's debate over two controversial provisions of Canadian anti-terrorism legislation. On the one hand, the Conservatives are claiming that the ability to compel testimony and perform preventative arrests is crucial in the prevention of terrorism. On the other hand, the Liberals are saying that these provisions endanger civil liberties. But they've never once been used in the five years they've been on the books in Canada. So both positions seem a little empty to me. I am open to comments, but I'd like to hear especially why we should keep/repeal a law which doesn't seem to do any harm or any good.

Of Yellow Knives and Kicking Horses

Two Friday's ago I had a great birthday party. Early the next morning I headed out on a flight to Calgary. It was too early and clearly wasn't booked with much foresight. I was heading to Yellowknife to hang out with some old friends. I arrived later than expected on account of a missed connection in Calgary.


With the illustrious Loren

I spent three days there, and did the whole circuit - the Gold Range, Bullock's (where I had the best fish of my life), and some hiking on a lake. The political scientist in my couldn't pass up on a visit to the Legislature, which to my knowledge is the only non-partisan Westminster system in the world. It's arguable if it functions well, but it sure is interesting.

On Tuesday I flew to Calgary and travelled to Kicking Horse to ski with some old and new friends. In all, it was a good enough week to forget about all the troubles of getting older. Now I am back to work and the new troubles of executing an experiment. But I shan't complain; I could be a fish on someone's plate or some other fate.

The Logic of Political Survival

Among the great books recently written in political science, Bueno de Mesquita et al's The Logic of Political Survival must make the list. It basically tackles a fundamental question of political science: why is it that bad governments (particularly undemocratic ones) can survive for so long? To make the long story short, they argue that governments with medium-sized selectorates (which is a generalization of electorates to include non-democratic selection processes) are able to survive by enriching their selectorates at the cost of the larger public. This works best for selectorates which aren't too small, because when they are too small it's easier for someone else to put together an opposing and winning coalition (think of military coups). And in selectorates which are too large it becomes more efficient to allocate goods on more fair grounds. In medium-sized selectorates a bad leader can stay in power for a long time. For the case of Zimbabwe, that seems to be what this article is demonstrating.

Mugabe is basically allowing his presidential guard to thoroughly pillage Zimbabwe by taking advantage of things only available to those in the selectorate: favourable and contrived exchange rates on US dollars, cheap gasoline, and (until recently) productive and well-kept farms. This hardly proves Bueno de Mesquita et al's argument (indeed, it is open to some real criticism). But it does a nice job of illustrating it.

Garth Turner and a by-election

As most know, Garth Turner joined the Liberal caucus yesterday. No complaints from me on that. I think MPs are free to sit in whatever caucus they please and whenever they want. And I don't think that they should have to run in by-elections to do it.

That said, Turner's position is too cute by half. After taking Emerson out to the Blogshed in January for not running in a byelection after he joined the Tory caucus, he now says that he'd be willing to run in a byelection in Halton if Stephen Harper called it. But obviously Stephen Harper can't call it, as Turner has not resigned. Now, Turner claims that were he to resign he doesn't trust that Harper would call a prompt byelection (it can effectively be delayed for a year) . And that's fair enough. It's Harper's prerogative and I am not sure I would call one either. But that is totally beside the point that Turner could at least hold up his end of the bargain: he could resign and put Harper's feet to the fire to call the byelection. But he is unwilling. And by his standards do you know what that makes him? It makes him just another heart-breaking politician. And to think that a lot of us thought this guy was different.

From this morning's Chronicle-Herald

Don't kill yourself about makin' it
Be takin' it easy, but be takin' it
There's enough out there who are fakin' it
Don't let 'em take the joy that you make on your own

- Old Man Luedecke

Five Thoughts

I have been coming up against deadlines for the last seven days or so, so I shall share five (more or less random) thoughts:

1.) If I were a politician or a person engaged in politics, I would be quite concerned about the incivility involved in suggesting that the Auditor General is in the backpocket of the federal Tories. Or in suggesting that Stephane Dion's campaign may have been funded by illegal money (a likely liable to which I won't link). I am always puzzled about why people who are upright, pure as the driven snow even, get involved politics when they believe it is otherwise full of bad, corrupt, crooked and manipulable people. I realize that it may be a dominant strategy to always slag your opponent as incompetent or unethical or worse, but in the end everyone loses when politics is debased. It kind of reminds me of two prisoners in separate interogation rooms...

2.) I have an abiding interest in immigration and asylum and how these issues sometimes affect politics and public opinion. As a tangent to this tangent, I ocassionally read literature on migrants or refugees. Like books by this guy. And of what I've read Zagajewski's Refugees is among the best (and I found it on a great blog).

3.) Speaking of literature, this is quite a good short story. And here is the movie.

4.) What of my motorbike, you ask? Safely stored away for winter? Alas, it is true. But the stars are aligning for a week's riding in Spain avec mon pere. I'll be riding a sport-touring bike for the first time, though about half displacement of my father's normal ride. But at least we'll both be renting the same bikes for this trip. Pictures shall be sure to follow. As will, I am sure, yawning from the crowd uninterested in bikes.

5.) The Jerdon's Courser is an amazing bird, though not because of its rather distinct if modest markings. Rather, it was long believed to be extinct until it was rediscovered in 1986. But, even today there likely less than 200 in the world, so ornothologists still know very little about it's behaviour. This relates to nothing but the truth that for many things there is a light that never goes out, even when we're certain it has.

And thus end my meagre offerings.

Once more through the Northwest Passage

One of the pleasant surprises of this blog is that it's reconnected me with old friends. It's also occasioned the crossing of paths with people I may not otherwise have met. This happened with this post. If you read the comments, you'll see that Peter Brock's daughter wondered if I had known her father. I had not, but I had been taken by his obituary in the Halifax Chronicle-Herald. He was a man who had lived quite a life, topped perhaps by his sail through the Northwest Passage (a journey, I should think, which at once makes him perfectly Canadian and perfectly heroic). Unfortunately, the article to which I linked is no longer on the CH site. So I've retrieved it, and reprint it here in full. May we all have adventures a tenth the measure of Peter Brock's.

Man who conquered North West Passage dies in bike-car crash; Victim was also an award-winning author and environmental activist

---

Peter Brock, whose journey through the Northwest Passage earned him distinction as 2006 Nova Scotia Sailor of the Year, died Tuesday when he was struck by a pickup truck while cycling in Bayswater.

The 73-year-old sailor, author, artist and musician was remembered Wednesday as an exceptional man with a passion for the ocean and the solitude it provided.

"He was one of these people who didn't like to be in the spotlight," his wife Margaret Archibald said in an interview from their home in Blandford.

"He had a good year. He got his boat through the Passage, won this award . . . and he was feeling good," she said. "Things were going well for him."

In 1996, Mr. Brock and his wife began a five-year journey onboard their 42-foot sailboat, Minke, the second boat Mr. Brock had built himself.

They left Nova Scotia, sailed down the east coast of the United States, past Cuba, Mexico, Belize, Guatemala and through the Panama Canal, eventually ending their voyage at Vancouver Island.

In 2003, Mr. Brock set out to sail through the North West Passage, going as far as he could each summer, before leaving the boat behind to return home. This summer, he completed the adventure and sailed to Labrador, where Minke is expected to remain until next year.

Brother-in-law David Archibald, one of two people who accompanied him on the last leg of his trip, called it "a wonderful experience." "He was only the third person, I think, to ever sail a boat he built himself through the North West Passage."

Barbara Pike, past-president of the Nova Scotia Yachting Association, said Mr. Brock is well respected in the sailing community.

"He was just an amazing person . . . who took on this adventure and shows the sport of sailing is for all ages," she said.

"There have been very few people who have actually sailed through the North West Passage, particularly in the size of boat he sailed. To attempt to do it, then to accomplish it, is just a major feat."

Mr. Archibald said Mr. Brock was also an accomplished pianist, and a "tremendously warm" person, with an interest in many things.

He authored two books, including Variations on a Planet, which won the Writers' Federation of Nova Scotia's Evelyn Richardson Memorial Literary Award for best non-fiction book in 1994.

Mr. Brock was also an environmentalist, particularly troubled by clearcutting, who had once worked with the CBC and was involved in the development of the Discovery Centre when it opened at Scotia Square, Mr. Archibald said.

"He's never been an individual to be involved in anything mainstream, 9-5. He was very much an individual who struck his own way in life and did what his passion led him to do."

Mr. Brock was struck from behind by a half-ton truck while cycling along Highway 329 in Bayswater. The accident happened at 4:10 p.m. RCMP believe the 44-year-old driver was blinded by the sun and did not see him.

The case remains under investigation but police do not believe alcohol was a factor. The road was clear at the time, police said.

Mr. Brock is survived by his wife, Margaret Archibald, children Jeff and Laura, and stepdaughter, Janice. ( 'He had a good year. He got his boat through the Passage, won this award . . . and he was feeling good. Things were going well for him.'

Rabble Babble or down with math

My roommate has suggested to me on occassion that Rabble.ca is, shall we say, a little out there. And it generally comes up in the context of some rant I have about some site on the right. But, for all the faults of, for example, Small Dead Animals, I could not ever imagine a post this inane appearing. This thing stretches the mind.

Cute

Now that Nova Scotia has benefited from having its natural resources excluded from equalization it wants everyone else's natural resources counted at 100% so that it can reap a bigger windfall. That sounds like a campaign for fairness if I've ever heard of one. It's like demanding higher tax rates on everyone else after receiving a tax amnesty.

In the Beach, Out of the Cold

I wrote earlier about a group of people in the Beach (or the Beaches) who seemed to think that it was their right to tell a church it could not house twelve homeless people one night a week for twelve weeks. It seems their objections have been overcome, and the Church now has the go ahead.

Of course, all of this was absurd from the start, for the following three reasons:

i) A church shouldn't have to ask anyone for permission to undertake its duties, provided they are within the law.
ii) The total lack of evidence that such programs increase crime rates and reduce property values aside, there are already homeless people in the Beach. That they go unnoticed is just one more reason to support the program.
iii) If you think that government alone is going to solve the problems of homelessness than you are hoping against hope. Objecting to those organizations who are trying to step into the breach is to take an active role in worsening the conditions of those on the street.

Thankfully better senses have prevailed. Now, I wonder what are this person's views now. Someone should ask her, and someone should remind voters that she tried to stop this.

UPDATE: I've recieved quite a good comment about this post, which I shall reprint in it's entirety. I am happy to strikethrough the last paragraph of my original post, though I shall leave it up for the purposes of transparency. Thanks, Sean.

I live in the area, and I appreciate your attention to this issue. My neighbours who have opposed this project have dishonoured themselves and embarassed our community.That said, I'm not sure that Sandra Bussin ever actually opposed the project, her rather tortured comments on the matter notwithstanding. In discussion the other night with a fellow trying to whip up opposition to the Church's proposal, he saved his fiercest criticisms for Bussin, accusing her of fixing the consultation process in order to ensure that the proposal would succeed. In addition, she has been quoted in other local media as supporting project. I'm no supporter of hers, and she's certainly made a hash of things, but I don't think that she can fairly be described as an opponent of the project.Sadly, the real opponents continue to hide behind their lawyer, refusing to publicly identify themselves or even indicate their number. We have no way of knowing whether the protest was organized by a small or large number of protesters. I gather there were a number of mildly concerned residents who were glad to attend the meeting and obtain more information, but each of these people I spoke with was at pains to distance themselves from the people who hired the lawyer, claiming not to know how those homeowners were. The Church made a tactical error, I think, in not challenging the opponents to identify themselves, allowing them to delay this worthy initiative in the most cowardly possible, besmirching the whole community without putting their personal reputations on the line.

Liberals/NDP/Conservatives/Everyone buys headlines at Bourque!!

There is a growing story over the sale of headlines at Bourque Newswatch, the popular news aggregator. I must say that I can't blame Bourque for selling headlines - it's his prerogative. But it does seem a little like payola.

Anyways, some have their knickers in a knot because they claim Bourque has a secret plot to sell space to Conservatives. The problem is, it's not terribly secret. The second problem is, he seems to sell space to everyone. One need only to click on his pitch page to find this list of "clients who count on us to get their message seen, heard, and actioned":

Air Canada, Liberal Party Of Canada, New Democratic Party of Canada, Conservative Party of Canada, Ontario Chamber of Commerce, BMO, Canadian Renewable Fuels Association, PC Party of Ontario, Glaxo Smithkline, Canwest-Global, Canadian Payday Loan Association, Canadian Medical Association, Friends of the CBC, Rick Mercer's Report on CBC, Canadian Chemical Producers Association, Canadian Labour Congress, Canadian Medical Association, Labatt's, IPEX Thermoplastic Piping, Rx&D, Forest Products Association of Canada, Canadian Alliance, Fitness Industry Canada, Canadian Tire, Canadian Labour and Business Centre, Rittenhouse, TDBank, Liberal Party of Ontario, Belinda Stronach Leadership Campaign, John Tory Mayoralty Campaign, Marijuana Party, Saskatchewan NDP, Canadians For Equal Marriage, Canadian Taxpayers’ Federation, Vancouver Film School, Summa Strategies, Pollara, SES Research, Biotech.Ca, Prospectus Associates, BC Liberal Party, Canadian Foundation for Innovation, Riley Information Services, Compaq, CIBC, Cadillac, CasinoAcura.Com, SportsBetting.Com…and many, many more!

Time capsule found at Mount A

Given that it was found in Trueman House it's probably just full of dirty underwear.

UPDATE: Glenford sends this link to a great Argosy story with a couple dozen pictures of what has been found. And it actually does include a letter to Scooter.

Cree opposition to Eastmain 1-A

I've now written and lost two post on this topic. The new Blogger is crap, apparently. Here's the short version: The Globe has a story this afternoon on emerging Cree opposition to the Eastmain 1-A hydro project. The project will need to the diversion of the Rupert River and the flooding of 400 sq/km of land (which is a lot or a little depending on perspective).

The Chief of Chisasibi is opposed (though his community is about 400 kms from the Rupert). I for one am torn, and my feelings are captured by a quote from Chief Mukash of the Grand Council of Crees: “When you lose something, when you lose a loved one, you go through a phase of grief. But in the end there's always light at the end of the tunnel.” Or a bay at the end of the river, so to speak.

UPDATE: And for a great example of uninformed but passionate opinion, check out the Globe discussion. It's like SDA on steroids.

UPDATE2: I've shamelessly copied and pasted a pretty breathtaking photo of the Rupert. You can see a whole slideshow of these here.

Update3(more or less unrelated): Speaking of SDA and great photos, I recommend you check out these. McCormick is a hell of a photographer.

I am guessing this happened in the hot tub

I can't believe I am wasting my 100th post on this.

Just a thought

A little inside baseball: If I was going to write a long post about how Conservatives engage in character assassination and unreasonable attacks - say, like this - then I would probably erase a post just four down which suggests that ministers of the crown support terrorist organizations - say, like this.

I, like a lot of people, think that questioning Dion's patriotism and loyalty because he has French citizenship is pretty lazy, insipid, and obstinate. Even if this guy is doing it. But it's well within every citizen's rights to be lazy, insipid, and obstinate, so we shouldn't shed tears over it.

UPDATE: Coyne sends on the following (available in its entirety here):

"Anyone who questions Stéphane Dion’s patriotism is either a fool or a scoundrel. After the service he has done this country, after the abuse he has suffered in its name, to cast even the slightest doubt on his loyalty to Canada shames those who would try."

So, as in a lot of things, Coyne is right and I am wrong. He did not question Dion's patriotism and loyalty. He's no Ezra Levant. Though I must say that the rest of the linked column isn't his most convincing piece.

What if no one voted?

Political scientists have spent a lot of time and energy trying to figure out why and when people vote. This book is a great overview of the research, this article is rather pathbreaking, and this argument is quite compelling.

Common to all of these arguments is something of a paradox: why vote when your vote is rarely if ever decisive? Well, there appears to be at least case when it's pretty close. Nova Scotia held a special by-election yesterday for the African-Nova Scotian seat on the South Shore regional school board. No one voted. This shouldn't be terribly surprising. School board elections are low participation affairs; by-elections are even more so. And I don't think the African Nova Scotian population on the South Shore is very high, so the electorate is small. But still, file this one away as the exception which proves the rule.

Rodney MacDonald: The Scene of the Accident

What is going on in Nova Scotia? And what is Rodney MacDonald thinking? The Herald is announcing that Ernie Fage is resigning for the second time in a year. The first time it was for lobbying the business development outfit in Nova Scotia to give a loan to a company which rents some of his extensive land holdings in Cumberland County. This time it's for leaving the scene of an accident. In November. And it appears he was intoxicated.

From my perspective what is most damaging in the long-term is the following snippet:

Joe Gillis, the premier’s spokesman, said earlier Thursday that Mr. Fage told the premier about the crash before Christmas.

“Mr. Fage told him there was a minor accident and that it was reported to the police as well as the insurance,” Mr. Gillis said.

When asked if the minister told Mr. MacDonald he had left the scene of the accident, Mr. Gillis said no.

“But the premier had no reason to think otherwise or think anything else but what the minister had told him,” he said.

Earlier Thursday, the premier told reporters the crash was minor and proper procedures were followed in reporting it to police.

This just does not seem probable. Either the Premier (and his staff) were totally incompetent in questioning Mr Fage on the incident, or they thought they could wait it out, or he didn't tell them and someone is lying. Whichever one it is, this is outrageous. Add it up to another poor decisions by an immature and unready Premier.

UPDATE: The CBC reports that Fage reported the accident December 1st, a full week after it occurred. It would be rank incompetence to not ask when an accident occurred and when it was reported. And it would be incompetence of another order of magnitude to not fire a minister who waited a week to report a potential crime.

UPDATE2: Canoe is reporting that Fage only told MacDonald just before Christmas. Apparently it just came up in a conversation. It strikes me that withholding this information from your leader for a month is just another cause for firing.

Malcolm Gladwell, Mysteries and Puzzles, and General Tao

A lot of people like Malcolm Gladwell. He's written a couple of interesting books, as well as a mountain of magazine pieces. This is a good example. It's an interesting article, ostensibly about Enron but also about some sort of distinction between mysteries and puzzles. It's pretty entertaining, and chocked full of interesting anecdotes. But I think it just confirms what I suspected when I read Blink last spring (I read it cover to cover on a flight from Liverpool to Seville, so thankfully I didn't invest too much in it). Gladwell is taken by interesting theories from the social and physical sciences (in Blink it was the idea of heuristics and preconscious information processing), but not seriously enough to actually test them. Rather, he just fits evidence to them, and when that doesn't work, he just plays around with the definitions. It's actually quite unsatisfying. Unfortunately, his anecdotes are interesting enough that I get sucked in. It's like General Tao chicken: it's always a better idea at the start than at the end.

The empirical effects of minimum wage increases

There is a pretty lively if not totally well-informed debate occurring on a couple of blogs. As with a lot of things, Cherniak got it started with a post on the Ontario NDP's proposal to increase Ontario's minimum wage to $10 (it is currently at $7.75, but is moving to $8 soon). He's added a couple of other posts, and he has seen responses from MyBlahg and Plawiuk.

The problem with these posts - and especially the comments which follow them - is that none of them seem to know or at least acknowledge that there really isn't a consensus on what the effects of minimum wage increases are. And to the degree that a consensus is emerging, it's that any measurable effects are negative, but quite slight. The Economist summed up the shift in thinking quite nicely in an article last October:

The academic argument—and there has been plenty of it in recent years—has focused on the employment effects. Elementary economics would suggest that if you raise the cost of employing the lowest-skilled workers by increasing the minimum wage, employers will demand fewer of them. This used to be the consensus view. But a series of studies in the 1990s—including a famous analysis of fast-food restaurants in New Jersey and Pennsylvania by David Card at Berkeley and Alan Krueger of Princeton University—challenged that consensus, finding evidence that employment in fast-food restaurants actually rose after a minimum-wage hike. Other studies though, particularly those by David Neumark of the University of California at Irvine and William Wascher at the Federal Reserve, consistently found the opposite. Today's consensus, insofar as there is one, seems to be that raising minimum wages has minor negative effects at worst. Lawrence Katz, an economist at Harvard University and signatory of the EPI's letter, agrees that “most reasonably well-done estimates show small negative effects on employment among teenagers”. **

I know some folks will insist that what works in theory (or in their conception of economic theory) should work in practice. Others will reject conventional economics as biased in its approach. But these objections just won't cut the empirical mustard. So, before someone of whatever political orientation starts telling you what the consequences of minimum wage increases will be, remember that the people who actually get paid to study this stuff don't really know themselves.

** (I note and particularly like the Card and Krueger article cited, because it used a natural experiment to call into question years of wisdom based on more conventional observational studies).

On Cabinet Shuffles

Wells lays bear how useless is all this speculation of cabinet shuffles in Ottawa. So, rather than read another two or three stories written on the thinnest of information, why not read two papers on the comparative politics of cabinet shuffles? The papers, found here and here, are by Chris Kam and Indridi Indridason, both great young political scientists.

UPDATE: Varnson points out three other great papers on cabinet shuffles, all written by the equally young and estimable Torun Dewan. They are here, here, and here. This is what proper political science looks like.

Shiraz Dossa meet William Riker

I am quite late to be commenting on the case of Shiraz Dossa of St. FX. For those who have not followed the case, Prof. Dossa found himself in a world of trouble when he accepted an invitation to present a paper this fall at a government-sponsored conference on the Holocaust in Iran.

The good professor, if you can believe it, suggested that he was not aware that the conference would be attended by Holocaust deniers. Funny, given that the government of Iran has basically taken the denial of the holocaust as the highest truth. Anyways, Prof. Dossa was called to the carpet by the Riley administration at X.

Prof. Dossa responded by arguing that the best way to address hate is by confronting it, rather than running away. So, I am sure he can let us all know exactly how he called down the holocaust deniers in his midst. What did he say? When did he say it (surely not during the tour of Iran which he patrons also gave him)? And to whom did he say it?

While we are waiting for this - for a long, long time, I suspect - I thought I might share what is a real example of courage and denunciation. William Riker - on the two or three most important political scientists of the 20th century - travelled to Moscow in 1979 for the International Political Science Association meetings. When he presented his famous paper, "Implications from the Disequilibrium of Majority Rule for the Study of Institutions" (APSR Vol 74: 432-446), he concluded with the following:

Given the location of the platform for the presentation of this paper, I should conclude with the observation that political science can exist only in an open society, that is, a society with unfettered freedom of speech. Insofar as the science involves a study of values and tastes, scientists can be acurate in their predictions only if they are able to ignore official doctrine (as for example in Marxism) about the preferences and interests of groups and classes. Official doctrine may be right or wrong, but whether it is or is not right is a subject not for offical decree but rather for empirical investigation, which is possible only in an open society. Moreover, insofar as the science of politics involves the study of institutions, scientists must be able to examine critically the way governmental institutions operate at the highest as well as the lowest levels of government. Only thus can they study the way institutions systematically bias the selection among preferences. Of course, this means that governmental secrecy, if it exists, prohibits scientific investigation of political structures.

Which of the two - official doctrine about preferences or governmental secrecy - is the more inhibiting for scientific inquiry probably varies from place to place. But I believe secrecy is more often a barrier. The scientist can often guess fairly well about tastes and preferences, but the way institutions work is extremely difficult to guess about. Consequently, if I am correct in believing that the study of tastes is not enough and that one must study institutions as well, then it follows that the new emphasis on institutions as a necessary part of the science of politics probably precludes this science in any society governed secretly.

Finally, there is another way in which the conclusions of this paper imply that political science can exist only in an open society. One important conclusion, indeed the most important conclusions, of the line of reasoning set forth in this paper is that, in the long run, nearly anything can happen in politics. Naturally this conclusion is a sharp contradiction of all philosophies of history (such as Marxism) that necessitate a belief in the existence of a determined course for the future. This belief is precisely what the discoveries recounted in this paper deny. So, if these discoveries are true - and mathematically they appear to be irrefutable - then a science of politics is incompatible with Marxism.

Prof. Dossa meet Prof. Riker. He was nobody's stooge.

Not In My Beach

Both the Globe and the Star have good articles on how some residents of the Beach (or the Beaches, for the holdouts) are objecting to a proposal by an Anglican parish to once-weekly for twelve weeks host twelve homeless people overnight. I thought this quote from a local councilor was particularly choice:

Local Councillor Sandra Bussin said the residents are concerned about supervision and wonder whether there is a need for this program. Ms. Bussin also wonders whether the program is effective.

"I understand a number of the Out of the Colds are very volunteer-driven, there's many hours, people are exhausted by this level of service and there's a move away because of the amount of effort that goes into it," she said.

The Good Councilor obviously has first the concerns of the worst-off. And she's probably right: housing people in a church just doesn't make much sense. There are no beds, maybe no showers, and it's just not comfortable. So, maybe we could find a better place. I propose 316 Glen Manor Dr. It's in a great part of the Beach, and I suspect that it's quite nice digs. And, since Sandra Bussin has no trouble telling a church how it's resources should and shouldn't be used, I am sure she would have no trouble with me telling her how her living room should be used.

Ripping up ballots in Nova Scotia

Today's Chronicle-Herald reports that the Chief Electoral Officer for the Shubenacadie band has been charged with destroying ballots, among other offenses. This makes a further case for the Department of Indian Affairs handing over the administration of band elections to a more competent party, like Elections Canada. On the same note, Tom Flanagan had an interesting if provocative article about the need for (better) elections on reserves in yesterday's Globe.

"L'énigmatique Monsieur Mazhari"

I am sitting in a friend's unbelievable apartment in Toronto reading La Presse. Figures, as I read the Star religiously when I am in Montreal. Anyways, there is a great article today on the absolute whackjob to whom Miriam Bedard is married. This, for me, is the killer paragraph:

Ceux qui ont croisé la route de Nima Mazhari s'entendent sur une chose : c'est un homme qui raconte des histoires abracadabrantes. Genre : il fut ami de Picasso. Il est devenu riche grâce à une usine de fabrication de fausses pièces de Mercedes. Il a convaincu Jean Chrétien de ne pas participer à l'invasion de l'Irak. Et il a tenté, en vain, pendant un an, de prévenir les autorités américaines des attaques de 2001.

All in all this is a sad story of a bizarre couple.

UPDATE: Dennis, you want it, you got it. A poor translation:

Those who cross paths with Nima Mazhari come across the same thing: he's a man who tells unbelievable/incredible/magical stories. Example: he was a friend of Picasso. He became rich through a plant fabricating Mercedes parts. He convinced Jean Chretien to not participate in the invasion of Iraq. And he tried for one year, in vein, to inform American authorities of the attacks in 2001.

Pinocet at the Hitchens Post

What the National Post gives, Christopher Hitchens takes away. And he's right.

Hello Harper, goodbye Rupert

Stephen Harper made a visit to Quebec yesterday. Aside from affirming that English Quebecers and are not a part of the Quebec nation, he also announced that the Eastmain power generation project will go forward, meaning that the government will divert the Rupert River.

I've written earlier about the Rupert; about its spine-shattering rapids, its route across the bottom of the Taiga, its absolute magnificence. But I've also witnessed the material wealth and security afforded to Cree communities in Northern Quebec which shames that of the Crees on the Ontario side of James Bay. So, I am torn about the value of this project. The benefits are clear, but the drawbacks are perhaps harder to put into numbers. What I am certain about, however, is that everyone who can you should hop on the James Bay Highway and see the Rupert before it's gone.

And the world's most patient man...

...is this guy, apparently.

East Coast Mount Allisons

The East Coast Music Awards nominations were recently announced, and they might as well name them the East Coast Mount Allisons. Jana Starling, a professor of music at MTA, was has been nominated in for best classical recording. And, closer to home, In Flight Safety - of MTV Live and Dell computers commercial fame - have been nominated for four awards including Group Recording of the Year, Rising Star(s), Video of the Year, and Alternative Recording of the Year (where they'll be going up against the indefatigable and probably unshirted Jon Epworth, another Allisonian).

But, most significant to me is that David Myles has also been nominated for the Rising Star award. Now, I knew David back when he was the shy and unassuming leader of a ten piece funk band that used to pack Hesler Hall. And I knew him when he used to host the what was probably the most popular radio show in China, which is the same time that he was playing to a stadium of people in a blues band. Yes, I can see talent that others cannot. So, I am not surprised, but quite pleased. Good luck, David.

You think?

You think his personal problems have taken a toll? It will only get worse before it gets better.

The moral hazards of Liberal fundraising

The Globe has a story today about how the Liberal Party is going to hold fundraisers to pay off the collective leadership debts of all leadership candidates. On the face of it, this seems like a nice show of unity. But, on deeper thought, it obviously invites a moral hazard, especially if candidates are given money proportionate to their debts. The only way the party can avoid this is by distributing the dollars entirely evenly between the candidates (i.e. total raised/# of candidates), or, even better, by giving them a share of the money equal to the their first ballot placement (i.e. total raised*share of first ballot). If the money is distributed proportionate to debt, then it just encourages behaviour like Bob Rae's (borrow tonnes of cash from corporate donors) and discourages action like Michael Ignatieff's (work your tail off through countless small fundraising endeavours).

I am glad that there is unity in the Liberal party. It's good for them and good for our democracy. But unity shouldn't overcome reason, and there seems little justification, in my mind, for rewarding foolish behaviour during the leadership race. If they do, expect to see a lot of blown banks after the next race.

Peter Brock, RIP.

Ah, for just one time I would take the Northwest Passage.

Rodney MacDonald and Liquor

The Herald has a most interesting editorial on the privatization of NS liquor stores. What's the phrase? Ah, yes, the jig is up.

Why aren't journalists helping Mahar Arar?

The Globe features a story today on the government's continued search for RCMP officials who leaked false information to the press about Mahar Arar. Colour me confused, because I don't understand why journalists who were lied to just don't give up their sources. I have all the respect in the world for people like Juliet O'Neill, who stood up for her journalistic rights in the face of an illegal RCMP raid. But now, given that she's been lied to, why doesn't she reveal who deceived her? And why not all the other journalists who received false tips? If they believe the Arar case is a tragedy, then they should square up to their role in its furthering.

Leslie Bruce

I received awful news on Saturday. Leslie Bruce - a fellow Allisonian and a person of the finest character - was killed in an accident on Thursday. I cannot imagine the depth of loss experienced by her family and close friends. Her obituary follows in full. It does not capture the depth of the imprint she's left on the earth, but it awes nonetheless.

BRUCE, LESLIE ELIZABETH - The family of Leslie Elizabeth Bruce is saddened by her accidental death in Fredericton on Thursday, December 7, 2006. Leslie was born on December 26, 1979 in Saint John, graduating from St. Malachy's High School (1997) with high honors and receiving her Bachelor of Science degree from Mount Allison University in 2001, with a major in Biology and a minor in Women's Studies. Leslie also received the "Flying A" award from Mount Allison, which represents leadership in both the Community and the University. Leslie was currently attending the University of New Brunswick (Fredericton) and was to graduate this spring with her Bachelor of Education degree, specializing in elementary studies. Leslie was a leader in so many of her endeavours whether it was student councils, Camp Glenburn as "Fee", or pursuing her passion for the care of the environment. Working at Lake O'Hara, British Columbia held a special place in her heart where she hiked many mountain trails. Leslie loved the outdoors and, in particular, her travels across Canada by bicycle with the Climate Change Caravan which she was instrumental in organizing. Her travels also took her to Australia, China, Britain, the Carribean, and most recently, Boston and Florida. While at Mount Allison University, Leslie was Chairperson of the Blue Green Society, a member of the press for a group of World Trade Organization protesters in Seattle, Washington, and a participant in an exchange program in Britain, learning to build straw bale homes. In addition to pursuing her scholastic endeavours, Leslie was often busy sailing, canoeing and camping along the Saint John River, predominantly at her family cottage in Glenwood. She loved Birkenstocks, music, dancing and playing the guitar. Everyone who knew Leslie admired her compassionate and adventurous spirit. Always a true friend, Leslie made a special impact on all those she knew. Devoted to her family and friends, Leslie will be deeply missed by her mother, Marilyn (Marr) Bruce; father, Michael Bruce and Anne Musgrave; brother, Andrew Bruce; maternal grandmother, Constance (Mooney) Marr; aunt, Ann Devereaux (Andy); uncle, Dr. David Marr (Judy); cousins: Alex and Martinique Devereaux and Colin, Sara, Jeffrey and Brian Marr; several great aunts, cousins and extended family. Leslie was predeceased by her maternal grandfather, Ralph B. Marr and her paternal grandparents, Andrew E and Jean (Thompson) Bruce. Resting at Brenan's Select Community Funeral Home, 111 Paradise Row, Saint John (506) 634-7424 with visiting on Sunday from 7-9 pm and Monday from 2-4 and 7-9 pm. Mass of Christian Burial will be celebrated from Our Lady of the Assumption, 360 Dufferin Row, Saint John West on Tuesday, December 12, 2006 at 12 noon. A private family interment will be held on a later date. Remembrances may be made to Mindcare N.B. Foundation, Nancy Clark Teed Charitable Foundation or a charity of the donor's choice. www.brenansfh.com

Silly me. I thought it was a victory for accountability and the non-deportation of citizens to be tortured.

From today's Globe article on the long-overdue resignation of Zaccardelli, we get this great tidbit:

Retired RCMP superintendent Ben Soave, now a security consultant, blamed the news media and politicians for the resignation of his close friend.

“It's going to be very difficult to find a man of his integrity and commitment to public service and law enforcement. This is a sad day for the organization. As far as I'm concerned it's a victory for terrorism, organized crime and the scum of the earth,” he said.

Sorry, Ben, but when the Commissioner of the RCMP either fails to inform his minister that he's helping someone be tortured or he is too incompetent to know this, and either way he lies to Parliament, then he has to resign. And it's not a victory for the scum of the earth. It's a reminder that no one is above the law, even those we charge with enforcing it (or not, in this case).

Pat Martin an idiot?

James Bow says it better than I can.

Jack Layton on Dion's citizenship

Jack Layton proves himself a boor today: "I would prefer that a leader of a party hold only Canadian citizenship, because one represents many Canadians, and for me that means that it's better to remain the citizen of one country," Layton said. "But for a person that isn't in a position of representing others, holding dual citizenship is fine with us." Well, I am glad it's ok with you, Jack.

I presume Jack will also request that any future Jewish Prime Minister deny her right of return, lest we not know where her loyalties lie. Layton once again shows that he is just a politician like the others.

I can't believe this debate is even occurring. Does anyone really question Mr Dion's loyalty to Canada? Or do they have no argument beyond a birthright and a knowledge that some will respond prejudicially to anything French?

UPDATE: I'd say the following site might hold relevant information for any member of Parliament of Austrian descent who may be interested in running for Prime Minister someday.

I wonder if it's too dark in a Syrian prison to prepare a new resume?

Things are looking worse for Mr Zaccardelli and better for all Canadians. The response of the PM in this article doesn't sound like much of an endorsement. Even worse, Conservative MPs seem to have turned on the Good Commissioner.

Zaccardelli suggests at the end of the article that the reason why the RCMP top brass failed to intervene in the torture of Mahar Arar is not because they didn't give a shit, but because they didn't know. Now, normally this would be a firing offense, but the Good Commissioner has suggested that no one is at fault because the problem is "institutional." Who, pray tell, is in charge of that institution?

It warms my heart to think that this man will be out of work, probably in a few days. I am not sure it does terribly much for Arar, however, and that's the point.

Coyne on Dion

It's no secret Andrew Coyne is a long-time fan of Dion. In his latest column, I think he captures the essence of Dion well. He is a man much like Harper, but different in at least a few important respects. The next election should be one for the ages:

His is a singular political persona; we have not seen anything quite like it before. In intellect, courage, and conviction he is a match for Mr. Harper, as he is also in diligence, perseverance and integrity. Beyond that he is a paradox: outwardly humble, yet immensely self-assured; gentle in demeanour, yet tough as nails; respectful of opponents’ views, yet divinely certain of his own.

And overarching all is a quite unblemished authenticity: there is not an ounce of phoney in this man. Mr. Harper has, perhaps inevitably, acquired something of a Machiavellian reputation in the course of his rise to power. Mr. Dion has not. If anything, he is regarded as almost too sincere (on the environment, in particular, he risks coming across as a fanatic, even if it is “the issue of our time”). But authenticity, besides being a virtue, is a potent political weapon. The public can sense it, and hungers for it.

Liberal Loans and C-24

This Globe article raises the quite interesting question of what Liberal leadership candidates will do to retire their quite considerable loans (especially in the case of Bob Rae). There are basically three options: devote large amounts of time in the next 18 months to raise money to retire the loans; write off the loans and see what action Elections Canada takes; or leave it to the party to pay off the debts. The first course of action is bound to failure and is just purely unwise from the party's perspective. The collective debt of candidates is around 2.5 million. With $1000 donation limits soon to come into effect, this means that for all candidates to retire their debts they would need to find 2500 donors willing to give all the money they are allowed to in a year to retire debts from a race which is over. It is unrealistic and maybe imprudent.

The second course of action, however, runs the risk of exposing a major loophole in C-24 and putting Elections Canada in an awkward position. Moreover, it opens the Liberals up to ethics questions.

The third option is for the party to retire debts using the funds it raises from individuals. But this, it seems, will create a major moral hazard in future races. This is a no win for the Liberals.

Oh, to be back in the days when one could retire leadership debts without having to tell us how it was accomplished.

Liberals Conservatives delight in Harper's Dion's election

February 2004 December 2006 - Liberals Conservatives today were privately and sometimes publicly thrilled with the election of Stephen Harper Stéphane Dion as leader of the opposition. Liberal Conservative strategists have pointed out that Harper Dion is bookish, sometimes solitary, intellectually demanding, a poor gladhander, and not known as a team player. Moreover, they point out that the Conservatives Liberals have elected a leader from the West Quebec. They are doubtful that Mr Harper Mr Dion will be popular among Ontarians Central Canadians, and are certain he will not appeal to Quebecers Westerners. Among his greatest handicaps are his years as a bright light in the Reform Liberal caucus of Preston Manning Jean Chretien and Paul Martin.

Wanker Levant

Ezra Levant has a brilliant column in today's Calgary Sun. He spends about 90% of it questioning the loyalty of Stephane Dion, based on his French citizenship (his mother was a French citizen). And this despite the fact that he's never held a French passport or voted in a French election. He then polishes up Ted Morton a bit, without mentioning that he's an American citizen. Now, I don't think it matters for either of them, but you think Ezra could at least try to be consistent.

Anyways, it's just amazing to witness Ezra Levant calling into question the loyalty of a man who has suffered countless indignities for his defense of a united Canada. And never once has he resorted to a lawsuit, which is more than you can say for Ezra, who would sue his own mother.

Dion was never in fourth

I have read at least six articles today which have suggested that Dion was in fourth on the first ballot. This is not true. He was perhaps fourth in regular delegate count, though we cannot be certain without knowing the distribution of registered delegates, alternates, and the distribution of spoiled ballots. But, when the all votes were counted he was in third. Arguably, he could never have gone from fourth to first, because he would have been obligated to move to Kennedy. So, no more of this fourth to first. It's incorrect, incomplete, and unhelpful in the analysis of the convention outcome.

Goodbye Zaccardelli

UPDATE2: Just when I thought Zaccardelli couldn't be more capable of incompetency and outright dishonesty this comes out. Either he was complicit in Arar's torture or he had no control over his organization. Either way, any self-respecting minister would ask him to resign. I am beyond believing this man has the integrity to resign on his own accord. As for Julian Fantino, get to work. You have no business giving Zaccardelli "a show of support" when you have duties to attend to in Ontario.

It's all a little rich for our government to be criticizing the Chinese on human rights when they condone this type of action by their top cop.

UPDATE: Scanning Coyne's backpages, I came across this article on Zaccardelli. He makes the case much more compellingly than I ever could. To be clear, the RCMP took deliberative action to keep Mr Arar in prison in Syria, while fully aware he was innocent. And while being fully aware that he would be tortured there. How this man sleeps at night is a question for the ages. And how Mr Day, normally a champion of human rights, does not request his firing leaves me counting sheep.

I'd say this was the last straw, but then I thought that complicity in the deportation of a Canadian citizen to be tortured in Syria was enough. I also thought that covering it up and deceiving ministers of the crown was enough. So let's just say that this is the third fireable offense. And I hope the government sends this man packing. This is a lot worse than expensing a pack of gum.

Ignatieff leads turnout

According to TDH Strategies, Ignatieff's campaign is leading in registration/turnout. This should help push Ignatieff up into the low thirties. Regardless of whether a measurable share of these people will leave him after the first ballot, this further demonstrates his organizational superiority. This bodes well for his on the floor organization.

I will be interested to see the numbers from Dion, which a good friend and operative of his claimed would be quite promising. Indeed, the Dion to Kennedy turnout ratio will be our best indicator of who finishes ahead of whom for third place and thus a shot at facing Ignatieff on the final ballot.

Correction on Wells

So, Paul Wells has on his blog a little note I wrote last September/October and sent to him last night after we shared a pint. He basically suggested that everyone's predictions about the outcome of the Liberal leadership were just full of wild assumptions and countless unknowns. And he's quite right. So, I sent him the memo I drafted which I think demonstrates that if you were betting on the convention with no knowledge of the preceding campaign, but a knowledge of every other leadership convention that's occurred, then you have to bet on Ignatieff. History is quite clearly in his favour. And I think the memo demonstrates why, particularly that the ratio of his support to the second place candidate, Bob Rae, is quite high. However, one statistic I did include is incorrect.

I stated that "In the history of federal leadership conventions, the largest first ballot first place showing of an eventual loser was Claude Wagner (22.5). Michael Ignatieff is fully 7.5 points above that number." This is incorrect. In 1983, Joe Clark scored 36% on the first ballot, only to lose to Mulroney three ballots later. I missed this case, though it is in my dataset. So, I was wrong. Fortunately, I think it does just about nothing to take away from the core argument, for two reasons:

* 1983 was not really an open convention so much as the defense of a leadership and a referendum on Clark, which suggests delegates where much more polarized. This is a substantive difference, but an important one nonetheless.
* More importantly, Clark's ratio to Mulroney (1.24) was much smaller than Ignatieff's, and I think that remains the most important number. This means Mulroney needed much less time (i.e. ballots) and coordination (i.e. the undiscounted support of other candidates) to push over the top. None of Ignatieff's opponents have that in this case.

So, I apologize profusely for the mistake, and I shall be more slope-shouldered than usual this evening. But the facts remain.

Am I Québécois?

Would someone mind bringing me up to speed on where I fit into tonight's motion? I moved to Quebec in 2002 to attend grad school. I've learned some French, but not much. Senneville might be my favourite place on the Island. I'd love to stay here and teach for the rest of my life. I'd even raise a family here, though I think my kids would speak English at home. Pray tell, am I Québécois? Why or why not?

On the Nation(s)

A quick post before I dash for the early bus. Gordon Campbell has said that natives should now be recognized as nations. This certainly has as much merit as recognizing the Quebecois. And, as he argues, it almost certainly confers more power on them. Whether the solution to inequality in our country - and especially among aboriginals - lies in parcelling them out from the population further is quite open to debate. But, either way, Campbell's declaration is clearly demonstrative of the direction this type of talk takes. We're down to founding nations or peoples, however inconsistent this is with historical fact and however marginalizing it is of all the other Canadians who have built this country. I am not keen to start a movement for the recognition of some Mennonite nation in Canada, but I sure know that my ancestors are as deserving of it as anyone else: they have a language, a more or less identifiable territory, a unique culture, and an ocean of blood and sweat spilled clearing land and settling the Prairies. But, unfortunately, it wasn't the right blood, so I suppose it will be a futile endeavour.

Update: Whatever.

Seven thoughts on a Montreal Saturday

Today's a great day. It's cool and crisp outside, but soon the streets will be full. Seven thoughts before I write and then head to breakfast:

1.) The Small Sins are a great Toronto band. Stay, their single, is ringing in my head.
2.) Today's Alberta Tory contest could be a nailbiter. And all bets are off if Morton finishes first. If it comes down to their campaign songs, Morton is clearly ahead of Dinning.
3.) Justin Trudeau's endorsement of Gerard Kennedy can only be good news for GK. Still, for a guy who evokes his father at every turn it's hard to believe that Kennedy's French is not a dealbreaker. But, then again, Kennedy represents youth and renewal and revitalization. Whatever all of that means.
4.) Duceppe must not feel terribly clever this morning.
5.) This is good news for Dion. I think.
6.) Bobby is worth the price of admission. Provided you have a student card.
7.) Finally, this is an extremely interesting paper by one of the smartest people I know.

And I'll wear underwear

I spent Wednesday in Waterloo with my sister and brother-in-law and their great family. The highlight was listening to my 2 year old nephew's reasoning. It basically goes like this: "Uncle Pete, my mom has a baby growing in her belly. When it comes I'm gonna be a big brother. And I'm going to wear underwear." Naturally, as the baby will need diapers. I am still smiling thinking about this.

The Greatest Democratic Convention Speeches Ever

I've turned my mind lately to what I think would constitute a great speech at the Liberal convention. I've already stated that I thought Dion's closing in Toronto was the best political rhetoric I had yet heard in the campaign. I am anxious to see what happens at the convention.

Until then, these two speeches (here and here) should be enough to hold anyone over. Jesse Jackson delivered the two greatest convetion speeches of the 20th century. He is alternately apologetic, bold, poetic, angry, arrogant and humble. He has lost, but he's not fighting a losing cause. These are speeches so great that I remember one summer when I lived with Pierre Poilievre - no soft heart he - we listened to them over and over again, always chilled by his words. I have my favourite parts, but I encourage you to listen and find your own. This is great stuff.

Stan Rogers and David Myles

This may be the first time those two names have been used in the same sentence. But certainly not the last. My good friend, David Myles, has been nominated as Best New/Emerging Artist at the Canadian Folk Music Awards. It's well-deserved. David's written bagfulls of great songs, including Something I Can Feel, which for me captures the wistfulness of being a young man better than most songs I know:

I wanna build a house
Up on a hillside
I wanna sing my songs
I won't need money
I'll just need time

And no song, I think, is as great as Stan Rogers' Northwest Passage in capturing the young man's desire to leave home-bound pleasures and security for a heroic adventure only "to find there but the road back home again."

If you've not listened to either of these guys you are poorer for it. But now you can be a rich man.

More on Advance Polls

This article on advance voting in the US midterms suggests that of the estimated 25% of electors who are casting early ballots many are doing so because they prefer the certainty of paper ballots over machine voting. Great. The unreliable nature of voting machines is driving advance voting. Whatever you make of advance voting, this reasoning should give us pause. When are Americans going to get better and more consistent electoral administration?

On Voting Machines

While I am writing about electoral administration, I thought I might point you to this great video, which is the key part of a recent HBO documentary on voting machines.

I don't think many things are simple, but this is: the best way to run an election is with simple paper ballots for one office at a time where vote choice is made by a written mark and ballots are later counted by hand. Fact. Voting machines are a disastrous technology which increase the rate of spoiled ballots, disadvantage the less informed, and increase arbitrary effects.

These guys do a lot of really interesting and sophisticated work on ballots. But you can learn most of what you need to know by watching this.

Advance Voting: the early bird doesn't get the worm

This is disturbing. The trend of releasing advance vote participation rates is going to soon be followed by releasing advance vote results. For various ethical reasons - persuasively articulated by Dennis Thompson - this is a bad idea.

I've written a little bit about advance voting in Canada and I think that the benefits of it are fairly unclear: it hives off part of the electorate from a potentially important 10 days of campaigning, it decreases the coherency of the mandate conferred by the election, and it doesn't seem to increase turnout. And while election results wouldn't yet be different in the absence of advance voting, you can bet that the potential for that (in Canada at least) would definitely increase if we started reporting exit polls from early voting. I have a nice paper on this for anyone interested.

For those not interested, check out this guy. He must be one of the the most productive academics going. This guy, as well. And check out these guys. They're mystery men, but given the productivity of their blog I will suggest they are slightly less productive academics than Bostrom or Fowler. But aren't we all? Alas.

Bill Black to the Bank of Canada

Bill Black is a great man. Razor-sharp, he graduated from Dalhousie with two degrees at 19. He then started his long and methodical ascent to the top of Maritime Life, a company of which his great-grandfather was a founder but which was long since owned by The John Hancock. He became President and CEO in 1994 and led the company through incredible expansion (He can spellbind you with his acquisition tales). When Hancock (and thus Maritime) was bought out by Manulife, Bill chose to stick it out in Halifax. He left business with a record paralleled by few and a loyalty among employees rivalled by even fewer.

Bill entered politics about a year ago, seeking the nomination in his Halifax riding, and then running for the leadership of his party when John Hamm resigned. I left school to work full-time on his campaign. Bill took a gamble on having a kid from Montreal who knew politics by the book but not by practice write his campaign plan and help him set up his ground organization. I can't say the gamble paid off. He lost a close race when the party closed ranks. The merits of that party's choice are now pretty apparent, I should like to think. One can't know for certain. But I can know this for certain: Bill Black is one of the smartest people I have ever met and one of the most decent. He is unfailingly proud and loyal to his family. He has ethics of the highest order. He is incredibly demanding of those who work for him but incredibly forgiving of mistakes made in good faith. And he's a decent golfer (though I think it was a draw between he and Andrew and I at Mahone Bay this summer). So, this is a great appointment. Well done on Jim Flaherty.

Big Crocodile Tears

P.W. Botha died today. Die Groot Krokodil was, as far as we know, unrepentent to the end. I remember an old girlfriend's father - a wonderful man who moved to South Africa as a young man before moving to Canada - describing Botha as the toughest politician he had known. But those unbending in the face of truth lose more than they win, for turning or not. So, let's cry some crocodile tears for the old man. And let's remember who won in the end.

Wells on Lapierre: Blackmailer-in-chief

Paul Wells has just said everything that needs to be said about Jean Lapierre. The man doesn't understand the first thing about civilized democratic dialogue: that you cannot threaten to take your marbles and go home everytime you don't like an outcome. Democracy depends on the losers' consent and it would be helpful if Lapierre and all others who prefer knives to throats over proper dialogue could learn this.

By the way, that applies to Dion as well when he claims that any talk of a fiscal imbalance is separatist rhetoric.

In other news, those who have figured out how to discern the Book of Revelation can now take on an infinitely more difficult task: keeping up with Cherniak's seventy-eight condition metaphor on the leadership race and Quebec.

So long, Schumacher

Michael Schumacher retired last weekend. In my estimation, he is among the greatest athletes in modern history. He dominated F1 racing with his unmatched combination of absolute aggression and perfect technique. There isn't a driver who approaches the corners faster or who can find a better line through a crowd. And in the rain - the great equalizer - he is unmatched and well-deserving of the title Regenkönig. He won more races, more championships, and more in a row than any other driver.

My brother made me a F1 fan and a partisan of Schumi. We watched him win in Montreal in 2003 and place second in 2001. The affection for him runs so deep that our family dog is named after him. So, it was with some sadness that I watched him finish in second place overall last weekend. The world has lost a great sportsman. And a gentleman, too.

Calling Stephen Taylor

I presume that a posting from Stephen Taylor is just around the corner pointing out that CTV news didn't note that Kory Teneycke, now shilling for the Canadian Renewable Fuels Association, is a (young) old Reformer. Now, I don't actually think that the media has to mention everyone's past, but Stephen does, so I'll be waiting for his post.

A final post for today...

This is a clip I watch when I want to be reminded of the singular power of a logical mind.

Canada may never, I think, see another politician of his skill.

On Dion's Academic Work

This is a nice piece on Dion's academic work in the Tyee (which I was pointed to by Cherniak). I should lay out my bias: I study in Dion's former department, my advisor was a frequent coauthor of his and I aspire to publish in the same types of journals he did. More than that, he is empirically rigorous and dedicated to setting aside seductive but ultimately wrong arguments. This is what made his letters to Bouchard so compelling, and so unsurprising to those who knew him in the academy. Whether it makes him smarter than other candidates is quite beside the point. I leave you the article.

And in Quebec...

...Bouchard does him one better.

Meanwhile, in Britain...

... Tony Blair is showing what happens when you're freed from the need for reelection.

Jonathan Kay on the war in Iraq

Jonathan Kay lays bare his misjudgement on the war in Iraq in today's Post. His piece is a clear-eyed account of what he believed to be right and what he found to be true. Given that the two do not match up, he has changed his mind on Iraq. It's a fine piece of journalism and especially worth the read if you're someone (like me) who believed that good could come from the invasion of Iraq, but now see that it was all for naught.

Phelps on Rawls and economies

This article confirms that one does not have to be efficient with language to win a Nobel in economics. Nonetheless, it's a nice piece, especially in its treatment of Rawls.

My Two Sheckles

For what it's worth, I think Dion gave the best closing today I have yet heard in the Liberal debates. In fact, I think it's the best closing I have heard in a long time. Liberals should learn something Conservatives learned in the 1990s. You can make a lot of mistakes in government and still be proud of your achievements. And other candidates should learn something relatively fundamental about political communication: rather than blather on about Mats Sundin, pose a series of questions and present yourself as the answer to them. Dion did that well today. And have a good text. That way you won't have to deal with Dominic LeBlanc's stopwatch.

On another note, Ignatieff was quite right on Afghanistan on two fronts. One, we can only realize our objectives to the degree that they have a credible commitment to military action undergirding them. This is as important for our allies as it is for our enemies. Second, Rae clearly has adjusted his position, for which it is reasonable to call him to the carpet.

A final question. Could someone please remind Bob Rae that it doesn't reflect terribly well on him to continue to remind people that he had no expectation of becoming Premier in 1990 and that he had no idea what to do when he did? It's not the comment of a man who has yet come to terms with the depth of his failure as Premier.

Twins and Turnout

Political scientists are late to the game in the use of twins to understand the genetic components of behaviour. Psychologists have been doing this for years, and biologists, of course, have been doing it for centuries (though not with humans).

But we're catching up, and this paper is a great example of using comparisons of monozygotic (identical) and dyzygotic (fraternal) twins to understand how much a behaviour is attributable to genetic characteristics and how much is due to environment. In this case, Fowler et al are interested in whether there is a genetic basis to voter turnout. Their paper is a fairly good first indication that there is. Something to think about over the weekend, if nothing else.

For a guy who's not running on ideas, this is a good one

Over at Daifallah's Blog, Adam trots out Bob Rae's polluter pays proposal as an example of the desire for Liberals to tax anything that moves. Of course, he doesn't acknowledge that Rae concurrently proposes an equivalent cut in income taxes, and he more or less ignores the empirical evidence that cogestion charges do reduce congestion.

Frankly, Bob's idea is a good one, and it's not terribly out of line with what the vast majority of economists believe (even or especially conservative ones). You know, the ones who accept that taxes are more or less a reality, and that you can use them to incent some behaviours and discourage others. Economists like this guy, this guy, this guy, and this guy. You know, the types who win Nobels and Clark and lead organizations like the IMF. Rather than the type of analysts who ignore facts for politics.

Bridges don't have fainting spells

This is a fairly inauspicious start to Porter Airlines' ferry service.

LeDrew this yourself?

Either Stephen LeDrew thinks he's running for high school president or this is the most brilliant political website ever. I honestly can't tell which is true.

On the Liberal Leadership Race

Let me be the thousandth person to admit to pressing refresh endlessly on the Liberal delegate counter. And let me be the third or fourth to observe that those numbers represent only earned delegate spots, which must be filled according to the relevant demographics and allow for only two substitutes. They have pretty wide margins around them. And if you couldn't organize your troops enough to win the close ones this weekend, you likely can't organize your troops well enough to carry your numbers to Montreal. Keep that in mind when you're thinking wishfully.

Back to writing about experiments and wishing - but not really - that I was a Blackberry-Wielding Operative.

Shout Out Loud

Amos Lee released his new album today. It's a fine piece of work. His phrasing and melodies are subtle, and the backing - including his own guitar work - is very subtle and layered. I am a fan. And I am green-haired with jealously when I think that he is just a year older than me.

Freedom is the kind of song John Mayer would write if he were more self-aware. Careless is a soul-piercing and reflective recounting of infidelity. And Supply and Demand captures the rat race as well as any of the other million songs that try. Lee is an Old Soul worth your $9.99 on iTunes.

Qu'est-ce que tu pense, Gerard?

Suppose a candidate for the leadership of the Liberal party didn't really speak French. Would this disqualify him, at this time, from leading the party of official bilingualism? Perhaps not, especially if he could demonstrate that it was not an issue for the one-third of Canadians who speak French. But, suppose he won less than 50 delegates among the French-speaking regions of Canada. Is this the stuff of a qualified candidate? I should think not.